![]() |
| Wilson Library, UNC, Chapel Hill |
REV. 3/13/2013
First, let us consider the time period covered by the 85% of books (orphans or not) that have fallen into the public domain. The operative legislation is the "Copyright Renewal Act of 1992." This act removed all requirement to renew copyright.
What is the arithmetic here? The renewal had to be registered 28 years after publication to get the full benefit of the 56 years of protection from verbatim copying. Since the restriction was lifted in 1992, 92 - 28 = 64. That means that after 1964, no more books reverted to the public domain for lack of renewal. That also means that 85% of the books published before 1964, did, in fact, unambiguously enter the public domain with no chance of reversal and reinstatement of copyright.
It may be worth quoting a few passages of Sprigman's analysis to get a flavor of the legal language without any mention of "concern" about Google and mention only of concern for the ham-fisted actions of Congress.
In explaining the status of works published before 1964, Sprigman makes the following calculations: [note: CTEA refers to the "Copyright Term Extension Act of 1998" AKA the Mickey Mouse Act - keyword: "life+70." The crucial milestones in the reworking of copyright before that as taken from Sprigman are: the Copyright Act of 1976, the Berne Convention Implementation Act of 1988, the Copyright Renewal Act of 1992 and CTEA of 1998].
For registered works published between January 1, 1923, and December 31, 1963, the CTEA extended the term of any subsisting copyright by twenty years. But because the average renewal rate for works published between 1923 and 1963 was just 15%, 85% of the works originally copyrighted during that period had already passed into the public domain. Thus, while the CTEA extended the terms of subsisting copyrights, the filter of renewal had already eliminated the vast majority of copyrights granted during this period from copyright regulation. The burdens of copyright, therefore, were visited only on those works that had passed through the renewal filter - i.e., only those works for which continuing protection could be expected to provide some return for the author to offset the social costs imposed by continued exclusivity. [Sprigman 2004, p. 537]To translate this into actual English: "...only the books that were renewed continued still protected. Only books that still produced revenue were renewed, he surmises. Thus copyright really worked only for a small percentage who would have made money in any case, copyright or not, I surmise. The idea of "pirating books" as one would "pirate" tapes and CD's does not enter the discussion. The use of the term 'some return' implies that the dollar amounts are small."
The "i.e." phrase in the quote above is a puzzler. Sprigman seems to make the point that authors have some concern for the social structures within which their books operate. Actually, I doubt that. This phrase seems lawyer speak running away with itself. It is disconcerting to parse legal speak.
The "social costs" may be a reference to something called "public choice theory" which tries to explain the fact that lawmakers and public administrators are costing all of us a lot of money some of it ending up in their pockets. This phenomenon is explained as a natural expression of democracy in action. Someone has written a long article about this on wiki.
However, it is refreshing to read Sprigman speaking of the "burden of copyright" and the "social costs" of exclusivity, even if they may be negligible. In my own readings about the Google case, I have not encountered the notion that copyright has social costs, only that Google was trampling rights.
Sprigman continues with his narrative of the timeline of the effects of the various acts from '78 to '98. I quote the next paragraph to show that it was not just my own non-lawyerly impulse to apply the 85% figure to all orphans and to engage in the guessing game: had Congress not decided to throw out renewals only a small fraction of books would ever be under copyright, even today. But since all the bodies were thrown into the lime pit by the Library of Congress, we will never know, will we?
For registered works published between January 1, 1964, and December 31, 1978, the CTEA extended the term of subsisting copyrights by the same twenty years. But because the Copyright Renewal Act had granted an automatic renewal to all subsisting copyrights not yet in their renewal term, the CTEA extended the copyright term of a class of works in which, according to historical data, approximately eighty-five percent of the copyrights would never have been renewed. In contrast to the situation described above, the CTEA visited the burdens of copyright protection on all works from our recent past, including the majority that would not have passed through the renewal filter. As a consequence, for a large percentage of these works, costs were imposed without the promise of any offsetting benefit. [Sprigman, ibid.]Translation: from 1964 onward, every poem by a fourth grader written in crayon and stuck on the refrigerator door will now be copyrighted - oh, and all books from our recent past as well.
The Google case shows us the costs that bring no benefit. There are the legal costs, which Google wants to bear as part of the settlement as a sort of philanthropy for the wing-tip set. But there are also the inefficiencies in the delivery of research materials, which are consideable.
In my own non-legal thinking I have come up with an appropriate test for copyright. If a work has not generated revenue for 20 (no, 5) years, it should fall into a conditional "electronic public domain," given that on the author side there has been no effort to revive a revenue stream through additional marketing or re-publishing. The maxim of "no marketing, no revenue" should be elevated to a legal principle in the area since it is a publishing reality.
As long as a book is being marketed it is bona fide player. Books that end up sitting in boxes waiting to be taken to recycling should never have been printed and may not be printed in the dawning age of electronic publishing.
On the public side, however, the public can claim its right to electronic delivery of research materials either at rates set by the author of works being marketed, at automatic rates set algorithmically for works being marketed, or for free for unambiguously public domain or for the new "electronic public domain" works that are not or have not been marketed. The legal principle of "concern" should be demoted from the legal arena as too vague to carry meaning and for muddling muddled minds further. Since this public effort of scanning and e-delivery might have added new value to the book, some benefit should reach the author, should a certain threshold of downloads be achieved and should that person be available to collect.
The Sprigman legalese: "... costs were imposed without the promise of any offsetting benefit" has an ominous sound as though something extra-constitutional were going on. Burdens are being imposed just for fun or because the imposers were operating without a clue. Clearly 85% percent of the pre-1964 authors declined to pursue copyright. Congress imposed copyright on later cohorts of authors without asking them. The notion that reuse of public domain material could be a benefit to authors would never have occurred to the legislative assistants drafting the CTEA nor to the legislator persons skimming over the text between phone calls. They were all aglow of the benefits of copyright to Mr. Bono and the media celebrities that would show up at their campaign rallies along with Mickey and Donald and the Rolling Stones. Ladies and Gentlemen of Congress, books are different, how could this have passed you by?
Sprigman makes one of his the constitutional arguments in a round-about manner, but one that can be followed with a cursory understanding of the value of property.
The copyright term is now sufficiently long that the net present value to the rightsholder of a copyright is practically indistinguishable from what it would be under a perpetual term. [It has been] ... argued that the current, post-CTEA copyright term of life plus seventy years has a net present value that is 99.88% of the value of a perpetual term.The Sprigman, pre-Google arguments have a concern specifically for the principle of copyright, its actual historical development and use since 1909 and a reading of the constitution in context of legislative developments in 1998. The effect of this news would be quite different on a librarian-cum-scholar or better, scholar-cum-librarian than on a copyright lawyer.
That the copyright term is now effectively perpetual is an odd development in a country whose constitution specifies that copyrights may be granted only for "limited times." [Sprigman, p. 522]
I can take the role of the librarian-cum-digital humanist. According to Sprigman's graphs, 100,000 items were copyrighted in 1910 and 300,000 in 1964. So let us pick an average of 200,000 per year. The crude graph on the renewal rates is difficult to read without the data set that made the graph, yet it looks as though the 15% renewal rate was achieved only in 1964, from 1934 to 1960, it would seem to hover between 4 and 12%. It is important to add, that only 5% of copyright registrations are books. The concept of orphan as applied to books does not occur in Sprigman.
To calculate orphans from 1909 to 1964 or actually to 1978 (CTEA 20 year extension), the last year that failing to renew would cause a lifting of the burden of copyright would be rather pointless. Yet to calculate the numbers for one year could be instructive.
Of the 300,000 items copyrighted in 1964, only 45,000 would make it into the present under copyright given the 15% renewal rate. If we take 5% of all categories - the rough percentage of books - (music, photographs, periodicals etc. make up the bulk of registrations) that would yield 2,250 books. If we can assume that the opt out figure for authors declining to become part of the Settlement should reach 10% (of the 2,250) that would take 225 items out of contention. These 225 would obviously not be part of the 85% since their copyright was renewed. No need to opt at all if the copyright was not renewed. If another 10% would opt in, that would remove another 225. Hence one must accept that of the 1964 cohort of published books, only 5%, less than 2,000 books would be "true" orphans. Only 2,000 books would have authors or heirs who cared enough to renew before 1964 but did not care to opt IN or OUT of the Google deal. If a larger percentage of the 1964 renewers - from 46 years ago - also opted IN, stranger things have happened due to the inevitable publicity, the number of orphans could shrink by another couple of points into the category of rounding error.
Let us recalculate. If we take the 15% of 15,000 books with active copyright - 2250 - and postulate that 10% of the "renewers" would opt out, there would be 225, 1.5% of the 15,000 copyrighted. If I can trust my solar calculator. However, that would make the percentage of the opters out rather low in reference to the total number of copyrighted holders, legally inconvenient. The 6800 opters out seem to have impressed Judge Chin for reasons hard to fathom. He also seems be impressed by the briefs of authors outraged by any presumptuous circumvention of the prerogatives of Congress. It is possible to slice the pie any number of ways - the point of this exercise is to create some doubt that orphans are 'the big problem.' Before 1964, this was clearly not the case.
To a librarian concerned with the electronic delivery of books, pre-1964 orphans are hardly a slice of the pie. 2,000 would be an 1/8th slice; half of that barely a 1/16th after that we are talking just crumbs: 12,750 public domain, 2,250 renewed, 225 opted out, 225 opted in, 1,800 bona fide orphans.
Of course, I would agree, the law should not trammel a minority - neither should the library of 12 million be trammeled by a minority. But these are not the arguments of the copyright lawyers as represented by the class of Grimmelmanns. I should add that I don't really feel that good about the numbers. That 5% of registrations are books can be gotten form LOC reports. What the renewals for the category proper books might be I have only inferred. I can imagine that music would be renewed at a greater rate than books. But I can also imagine that many of the close to 100,000 pieces of music copyrighted were not worth renewal. I offer only a very tentative look at the numbers.
A Look Behind Sprigmann's Numbers
One would think that with an issue as important as a digital library of many millions of books, the data of what actually is copyrighted would be better. One could imagine that lawyers would know excactly what they are fighting for, they would know the answer to the question just how much money is being made on out-of-print orphans. That is a trick question to check the level of awakeness - out-of-print orphans do not make any money at all.
Yet it would be good to know more. Digging through Sprigman and LOC anuual reports it is possible to get some hints. Let me list what I have been able to find out. There is some randomness in the list, but it will convey a general impression.
Before 1800, of the 13,000 titles published 556 were registered on the Federal level - 4% [Wiki - U.S. copyright law]. N.B. Common Law Copyright was practice.
A survey by Sprigman of the holdings of Bancroft Library of San Francisco publications showed that only 34% of Books were copyrighted in 1909 [Sprigman p.512].
From Landes and Posner, p. 212 quoting Jason Schultz, cited by Sprigman p. 497 - 147 of the 10,000 books published in 1930 were still in print in 2001. That is under 2%. Of course we do not know when these 10,000 applied for copyright. A book published and registered in 1930 would have its initial protection expire in 1958 - renewal would protect until 1986 putting it under the 1976 act which would grant life plus fifty (or publication plus 70) thus clearly making it under the Mickey Mouse Act, life plus 70. Of course should the author have died in the 1930's - the book should be in the public domain by now. Good for Husserl, bad for Heidegger.
Initially, only Books, maps and charts could be copyrighted. Editions or imprints could be copyrighted in 1801, music could be copyrighted in 1831 and photographs in 1865.
Production of new books in 1900 was around 4500 and around 5500 in 1901. New editions added 1800 in 1900 and 2600 in 1901. Thus for 1901 there were roughly 8100 books produced in the US counting editions by foreign authors.
Yet, in 1900-1901 fiscal year there were 79,857 (x 2) items received and stamped and cataloged by the copyright office:
Books, proper......7,746
Pamphlets.............5,770
Newspapers.........9,010
Plays.......................634
Periodicals..........17,702
Music.................16,709
Maps....................1,718
Engravings............5,687
Lithographs..........1,817
Photographs.......13,064
Books cover roughly under 10%
1947: 230,215 registrations - 9.903 books - 13,180 renewals (not listed by class)
1948: 238,121 registrations - 9,786 books - 15,796 renewals
1949: 201,190 registrations - 10,254 books - 13,675 renewals
1950: 210,564 registrations - 11,323 books - 14,531 renewals
1951: 200,354 registrations - 11,272 books - 16,372 renewals
Since the busy workers at the copyright office want good numbers they often count items deposited (2 for each copyright) as "registrations." Thus I cite these numbers with a minor caveat and only to demonstrate the relatively minor role of books in all that.
Regarding the renewals, no breakdown by category is easily available but my research is not completed. This really makes a sham out of the 85% non-renewals. We can surmise that a musical composition would more likely be renewed to garner performance revenue than an out-of-print book that will not be reprinted - not by the publisher, not by the pirates. But since there are so many more music pieces copyrighted than books, if a large percentage of music turns out to be mere shooting stars, renewal rate percentages of other categories could be impacted significantly. On the other hand, if journals, the other large category are renewed as a matter of course by the publishers, books may actually represent less that the general 15% renewals.
It is ironic that many of the journals have made it into electronic distribution, but the USDC is balking at out-of-print books.
A source quoted liberally by Sprigman is William M. Landes, Richard A. Posner, "The Economic Structure of Intellectual Property Law," 2002 available from AEI - http://www.techlawjournal.com/intelpro/20021119.asp . Also available from AEI is:
"The political economy of intellectual property law" - http://www.aei.org/docLib/20040608_Landes.pdf. There is also "The Economic Structure of Intellectual Property Law for 50 bucks from Amazon (with free peek) or Abe.
Grimmelmann on Orphans
Prof. Grimmelmann expands on the question of orphans in a substantial brief. (Grimmelmann, 2009 op.cit.). This 16 page brief was written after the first settlement attempt and before the ameded settlement. Prof. G starts with a section about dangerous monopolies that was not able to hold my interest or my wandering attention at the obscure arguments and wierd hypotheses. He continues with a treatment of the orphan problem.
Of course it is not possible to say orphans are not really worth mentioning. The whole idea of calling them "orphans" raqther than derelicts spins the question in the direction of "serious problem." It would be easier to say: "Let the Google people haul off the derelicts. If someone shows up with a title, give them 60 bucks and sign them up in the Scrap Metal COOP." Orphans are serious; it is potentially politically incorrect to use the term; it is insensitive language at best - think of the actual orphans who are not really amused although they are putting up a brave front.
Prof. G has the same figures from Sprigman; yet, he reads them differently. Obviously, the numbers of orphans before 1964 are miniscule. But for the effort of Congress, the numbers would continue to be small into the present. Sprigman says as much. The tactical Grimmelmann would not profit from mentioning that. Grimmelmann cannot say that the current cohorts of authors care no more about about protection from verbatim copying than those before 1964 who let their rights lapse. In the non-legal world that would be miopia and bad research and would earn low marks. In legal world this flies. In legal world one needs only minimal plausibility and the desire to win; the natural ambiguities of language and of the human condition will do the rest. Yet, some illusion of financial interest has to be squeezed out of the facts, else forget about the whole thing, boooring, the question becomes irrelevant.
For books, orphan-dom is a serious problem. The low renewal rates under the 1909 Copyright Act and the small fraction of books kept in print today suggest that the vast majority of books ever published are not being put to productive use. The precise split between orphan works and ones whose owners are rationally allowing them to lie fallow is impossible to ascertain, but no one thinks that the number of orphans is small. Half of all books would be a conservative, lowball estimate. [Grimmelmann, 2009, p. 8]Prof. G wants us to think he is leading with a statement of fact: "For books, orphan-dom is a serious problem." This is not fact, this is spin. It is preparatory spin on which the rest of the legalistic mesh depends.
Consider this: a 98% compliance rate with the seatbelt law is considered acceptable, or at least was acceptable until automatic seatbelts pushed compliance even higher. One would not lead with the sentence: "For seatbelts, non-use is a serious problem." Granted it is a problem, people die because of it, one cannot not draw the use of seat-belts into question because of 2% non-compliance. Although G quotes the 85% figure, he obscures the actual .04 of copyrights that a orphaned books, the real small number of orphans for the last time we have a body count. Else he would have to say: "I think we should can the settlement because we will never find .04 of copyright holders." Hardly convincing. You will always not be able to find .04 of any class, waiters at the Cheesecake Factory, taxi-drivers in New York, Tenors singing at the opera. Name the category.
The next sentence is a puzzler: "The low renewal rates under the 1909 Copyright Act and the small fraction of books kept in print today suggest that the vast majority of books ever published are not being put to productive use." The implication, absurd on its face is that productive use is equated with authors registering their copyright or that keeping more books in print would increase their productive use. The actual facts are that when books disappear from the market they are commercially dead - they are taken to libraries where scholars start distilling their "Zeitgeist," if I am allowed a little jargon.
No more monetary value - no revenue stream - no more income to the author - no monopoly of things of no value - only a scholar maybe, quoting a sentence and keeping an idea alive. The logic here is wretched since it seems to equate "active copyright" with "economic viability." True, economically viable books have copyright maintained by their authors. But there is no path to economic viability via copyright. A degree in English should be a prerequisite for Law School, although it does not always help.
To flay the straw person a little more; the syllogism would go like this:
Steinbeck published Cannery Row in 1945.In the world of law, "registered rights" have an automatic value - not for the registered rights holder necessarily, but potentially for the lawyer who may be called to defend those rights even at the behest of a third party. Rights must be "postulated," they must be vociferously declared, emphatically asserted in order to be defended - even if the article in question, a library book that sold 43 copies, 35 to libraries and the rest to friends and family - had never ever demonstrated economic value. We live by principle, by God!
The Steinbeck Foundation maintains active copyright.
The Steinbecks made a lot of money with CR.
Joan Beckstein published her novel Rows of Cans in 1945.
The novel flopped, sold nothing, copyright not renewed.
Had Joan only renewed the copyright it would be put to productive use.
There would be a Beckstein Foundation etc. etc.


